Well THAT was crazy!

So I thought I would be writing this about the end of baseball season.  Whoops!  I should be in bed right now, but watching that game has given me a shot of adrenaline, much in the same way the Redskins Monday Night Miracle comeback in Dallas kept me up six years ago.


There are certain rare events in my life as a sports fan where I know something amazing is happening while I'm watching.  The sideways pass from Wycheck to Dyson on wild card weekend (the best weekend of football in the NFL).  Michael Jordan strikes the pose after pushing off Byron Russell. Chris Webber calls timeout and Michigan losses -- just kidding I'm not old enough to remember that.

This was definitely one of those events.  For sports fans without a biased rooting interest in the game, this is one of the most pure moments you will ever see.  David Freese, the hometown kid down to the last strike of the Cardinals season, hits a two-run triple off a closer who had been perfect in the postseason up to that point (Nelson Cruz should have caught that ball by the way.  He was drifting  the last 5 or 6 steps after getting a great jump).  Lance Berkman, who said he didn't think Texas had what it took to be a contender after Texas tried to sign him this winter, delivers an inning later down to his last strike.  Freese then hits a walkoff home run.  Movie-script ending.

If I were a Cardinals or Rangers fan, I'd be hooked up to an IV right now (yes, either way) but it's cool to watch from a neutral prospective.  The only thing that could have made this game better was if after Kyle Lohse pinch hit and dropped down either the luckiest bunt I've ever seen or had an extremely good read on a charging Beltre,  Scott Feldman then proceeded to walk Ryan Theriot, loading the bases for Albert Pujols.

Then Fox would have panned in on Ron Washington's face about 80 times while Joe Buck talked about how fitting this was for the city of St. Louis and their fans that the face of the franchise was up and had a chance to decide the game.  Buck would have somehow spinned it to make it seem that whether or not Pujols re-signed with the Cardinals hinged on how he did that at bat.

But I think the way it ended was pretty cool too.  A special thanks to John Rossi, my friend from Providence College, who helped inspire this post.

Bad Rex Strikes Again!

Almost everything I write is going to be about baseball statistics.  I love statistics, I am a diehard Nationals fan, and I love the fact that numbers and baseball are so intertwined.

However, the Redskins are my first love, and on special occasions, I must pay them homage.  It is because of Skins' quarterback Rex Grossman's extraordinary performance yesterday that this post will not focus on baseball stats. 




Bad Rex takes a seat Sunday vs. the Eagles

Yesterday, Grossman had one of the worst games of any Redskins quarterback that I can remember in my lifetime.  Maybe not in a blowout, but in a game where it appeared like the Skins had so many chances to get back in it, I cannot recall such a stinker.

Which got me to thinking, in my life as a football fan, where does Grossman's performance rank in terms of the worst single-game performances by a quarterback?

Well, I did some research, and it turns out the jokes on me.  This wasn't even Grossman's worst game ever. He routinely did worse while he was leading the 2006 Super Bowl- bound Bears.  

As a Redskins fan, I don't consider myself someone with high quarterback standards, so I was shocked at my findings -- even knowing Rex's reputation as a gunslinger. 

Yesterday, Grossman was 9-22 passing for 135 yards before being removed at the beginning of the 4th quarter.  He threw four interceptions, three of them to Eagles' safety Kurt Coleman, his second-leading receiver behind tight-end Fred Davis, who Grossman found five times.  His quarterback rating was 23.7, and two of his interceptions occurred when the Redskins were driving in Eagle's territory. 

Rewind five years to 2006, in the middle of Rex Grossman's only full season as a starting NFL quarterback. 

The Monsters of the Midway are 5-0 and preparing to take on the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football.  Now fast forward slightly.  It's currently halftime, and the Bears are getting crushed, 20-0.  Have no fear Bears, Sexy Rexy to the rescue! (cue dramatic NFL films music)...  Rex? (No response). REX!? (I know he's here somewhere).  Four interceptions and two lost fumbles later...

Rex must have thought the game was on Tuesday morning.  No worries though, Chicago's defense returned two fumbles for touchdowns in the second half, and return specialist Devin Hester took a punt back 83 yards to the house for the go-ahead score.

The most lasting legacy of the Bears' epic Grossmanless comeback is now seen on couches all over America on Sunday afternoons, courtesy of Cardinals head coach Dennis Green. 

Grossman's quarterback rating that night was 10.2, but not one to get too comfortable with personal success, he would outdo himself later in the season in a victory over the Vikings, when he delivered a workmanlike 6-19 passing day, good for 34 yards, three INTs and a 1.3 quarterback rating. 

Then, after three weeks of good Rex following the Vikings game, Grossman wanted to give Bears' fans one final act of affirmation going into the playoffs, which is why his last game of the regular season was so impressive.

Grossman played the first half versus Green Bay, completing two passes to the Bears and three passes to the Packers.  His final line is a little misleading, because although he only went 2-12 for 33 yards, no touchdowns, three picks and a passer rating of zero, he did hookup with Packer defenders for two touchdowns, showing that he still had a nose for the end zone. 

Grossman's final game of the 2006 season made me wonder whether any other quarterbacks had played a game with a zero passer rating in my lifetime.  I decided to do a quick search on pro-football-reference.com, and typed in the first signal-caller that popped into my head, Ryan Leaf. 

Sure enough Leaf did -- September 20, 1998, look it up for yourself: 1-15 passing for 4 yards and 2 INTs in a 23-7 loss at Buffalo.

Derek Anderson gave Grossman a run for his money in the "watch-me-play-horribly-but-my-team-still-win" sweepstakes, with this gutsy line: 2-17, 23 yards and an interception, leading the 2009 juggernaut Cleveland Browns to victory over those same Buffalo Bills that messed Leaf's day up eleven years earlier.

What have I learned from writing this post?  That Rex Grossman is terrible, and if the Redskins want to play in the Super Bowl this year, they should stick with him for the rest of the season in hopes of getting three more games like the one he just played!

Mike Morse is in a League of His Own

It would be an understatement to say that Nationals 1B/OF Michael Morse was the team's offensive MVP for this season.

He led the team in batting average, home runs, and runs batted in, capturing the team's triple crown.  Only six other players (Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Lee, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Paul Konerko) led their ball club in all three categories. And for those who think Morse only did this because he was on a poor offensive team, you're wrong.  He was one of only three National League players (along with Kemp and Ryan Braun ) who finished in the top ten in all three triple crown categories. 

Nationals slugger Michael Morse

But anybody who follows baseball knows that Morse had a great season.  What makes Morse so interesting compared to other sluggers are his peripheral statistics, specifically his walk to strikeout ratio. 



Sluggers generally strike out a lot,  and Morse is no exception.  He struck out 126 times last year, more than Bautista (111), Mark Teixeira (110), Prince Fielder (106), and Nelson Cruz (116).



However, most power hitters also draw plenty of walks, which the Nationals cleanup hitter rarely does.  Of the league's 20 leading home run hitters this season who had at least 500 at bats, the fewest number of free passes taken besides the National's leading man was Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury, with 52.   Morse walked only 36 times.  This works out to a K/BB ratio of 3.50. 



For context, here are a few K/BB ratios from some of baseball's ERA leaders this year: Tim Lincecum - 2.56 K/BB ratio, Cole Hamels - 2.90 K/BB ratio, Josh Beckett - 3.39 K/BB ratio, and Ricky Romero - 2.23 K/BB ratio.



Yes, this is a small sample, and every pitcher has his own unique style, but the numbers are still fascinating.  Pitchers who earn a living by making hitters look foolish are not owning the strike zone the way the strike zone seems to be owning Mike Morse.

The OPS against averages of the pitchers mentioned above: Lincecum .646, Hamels .596, Beckett .608 and Romero .662.

Morse finished the year with an OPS average of .910. 

This is what makes baseball such a beautiful game.  Morse's batting eye  belies the offensive numbers he put up this season. 

Maybe his year was a fluke.  Only time will tell, but give the man some credit.  He has 1,140 career at bats and has been putting up numbers with terrible plate discipline his whole career.  Keep doing what you do Mike.  Forget all those sabermetricians who say you're bound to fall off your pace. 

It might be the offseason for the Nats, but it's never to early to start getting into beast mode.

Just How Nasty Can Strasburg and Zimmermann Be Together in 2012?

Nats GM Mike Rizzo has been very outspoken about what he thinks his ballclub's needs are heading into this offseason.

 On the pitching front, he would like to add a top-half-of-the-rotation veteran starter.  There are three lefties who will draw particular interest on the market: C.J. Wilson, coming off a career year, Mark Buerhle, a fixture atop the White Sox rotation for the last decade, and C.C. Sabathia if he chooses to opt out of his current contract (most people think he will), a guarantee for over 230 innings and a sub-3.40 ERA in each of his past five seasons. 

Chances are, the first two names will draw at least some interest from the Nats (apparently, a Nats scout attended one of Wilson's September starts).

But it is not as if the Nats are without top-of-the-rotation options internally.

In fact, next year, while Strasburg and Zimmermann are pitching together,the Nats may have one of the top 1-2 punches of any team in the National League.  The combined record of these two pitchers (18-22) is not that impressive, but let us take a further look at their numbers.

Jordan Zimmermann

Last year, Jordan Zimmermann was 10th in the National League among qualifying starters (1IP/team game) with a 3.18 ERA.  He will be 26 next year, entering the prime of his career, and finally off an innings limit.   In his first full season of pitching since Tommy John surgery he held opposing hitters to a .251/.294/.377 triple slash line (BA/OBP/SLG), all well-below NL hitting norms. 

If we rank his pitching  by OPS against average, Zimmermann was 14th in the National League, suggesting his ERA was well-deserved.  The three pitchers who ranked ahead of him were Shaun Marcum, Chris Carpenter, and Madison Bumgarner; the three directly behind were Ryan Vogelsong, Kyle Lohse, and Yovani Gallardo. 

What do all of these pitchers have in common?  They all had .500 records or better.  Yes, the Brewers and Cardinals boast very good offenses, but that doesn't explain the inclusion of two Giants' pitchers -- the Giants offense ranked last in the National League in runs scored, scoring 54 fewer runs than the Nats. 

The combined record of these pitchers last year was 81-54, good for a .600 winning percentage, probably what one would expect of pitchers just below the top-echelon. 

Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg, who will be 23 next season, is a year behind of Zimmerman in terms of his Tommy John recovery process.  He made a cameo appearance this year in the majors, and his numbers were filthy: (.398 OPS allowed, 12/1 K/BB ratio, 1.50 ERA), you get the picture.

However, because he pitched in only 24 innings, we are left with a small sample with which to judge his performance.  By combining his 2010 and 2011 statistics, we get his career totals:  92 innings pitched (about half of what you would expect a starter to manage in a season), a triple slash line against him of .211/.251/.297 (BA/OBP/SLG), and a K/BB ratio of just over 6/1.

 Putting these stats into perspective is dangerous, because it allows us to get carried away but this is all we have.  Assuming Strasburg pitched in 2011 long enough to qualify

for the ERA title, he would have had the lowest slugging average against him of any NL pitcher, as well as the lowest OPS against average.  

The five lowest OPS against averages in the NL this year were Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Cliff Lee. Their combined record: 83-39, which works out to a winning percentage of 68%.

Now, lets go out on a limb here and assume that both pitchers remain healthy for 2012.  Jordan Zimmermann, removed from his innings limit, goes on to make 34 starts next year and the Nats go 20-14 in games he pitches, winning slightly below 60% of his starts.

Strasburg, held back by an innings limit, is only allowed to throw 150 innings next season.  At six innings per game, that's 25 starts  (he has averaged just over 5 innings per start in his career so far because the Nationals have taken extra precautions with his arm).  If he were to win 68% of those games, that would be a record of 17-8. 

Combine those two records and you're looking at a 37-22 mark in games started by either Zimmermann or Strasburg. 

Finish 63-60 with you're 3, 4, and 5 starters and you've got 90 wins,  the same number of wins that the Cardinals needed to win the wild card this year.  I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'.  We need to seriously think about getting another pitcher this offseason.

October 2012



Ryan Zimmerman, after a walkoff grandslam vs. the Phillies in August



"There's a fly ball hit well, deep left-centerfield...  Victorino racing back, at the trackkk, at the WALLL... GOODBYEEEEE..  ZIMMERMAN DOES IT AGAIN! THE FACE OF THE FRANCHISE ALL THESE YEARS, THE WASHINGTON NATIONALS ARE HEADED TO THE PLAYOFFS!  YOUR 2012 NATIONALS ARE HEADED TO THE PLAYOFFSSS!!!!" -  Charlie Slowes', Nats radio announcer, about 355 days from now.

I am an eternal optimist when it comes to the Nats. 

I have been ever since  their 51-32 start when they first moved to town in 2005.  Since then, they have finished with the worst record in baseball twice and until this season they had never done better than 4th place in the National League East. 

But things are about to change.  The 2012 Nats going places.  To quote the man at the end of my last conference call about the government agency permit process: "Buckle up, because it's going to be one hell of a ride."

There has never been a sports season which I have been more excited about.  The 2006 Redskins season, which ended 5-11, is a distant second.  However, I will have plenty more posts before the start of the season to talk about roster moves, in-depth statistics, and other analysis.  For now, just believe me.

In the past years six years I have watched the MLB playoffs, I watched as a passive fan, who did not care because his team was not playing.  But now I am asking myself, what will the Nats do next year when Jordan Zimmermann wins game 3 of the NLDS and Ross Detwiler is scheduled to start game 5.  Can we use Zimmermann out of the bullpen in the most important game of the year, or will we  say he's off limits under any circumstances? 

These are problems that I would love to have.  Sure our team has some holes, but if I'm not mistaken, the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2010 lost almost 100 games, and they were one rally short from scrapping their way to the NLCS.

Holes can be fixed.  Whether through free agency, trades, or your own system, there are plenty of ways to fill that 25 man roster with the talent you need.

For now, just believe.  It is a beautiful October day, the leaves outside my house are turning red, and next year, the Nationals will play playoff baseball here on a warm, Indian Summer afternoon at Nationals Park.

I will be content, win or lose, because I am proud of the struggle we have had to get to this point.