Just How Nasty Can Strasburg and Zimmermann Be Together in 2012?

Nats GM Mike Rizzo has been very outspoken about what he thinks his ballclub's needs are heading into this offseason.

 On the pitching front, he would like to add a top-half-of-the-rotation veteran starter.  There are three lefties who will draw particular interest on the market: C.J. Wilson, coming off a career year, Mark Buerhle, a fixture atop the White Sox rotation for the last decade, and C.C. Sabathia if he chooses to opt out of his current contract (most people think he will), a guarantee for over 230 innings and a sub-3.40 ERA in each of his past five seasons. 

Chances are, the first two names will draw at least some interest from the Nats (apparently, a Nats scout attended one of Wilson's September starts).

But it is not as if the Nats are without top-of-the-rotation options internally.

In fact, next year, while Strasburg and Zimmermann are pitching together,the Nats may have one of the top 1-2 punches of any team in the National League.  The combined record of these two pitchers (18-22) is not that impressive, but let us take a further look at their numbers.

Jordan Zimmermann

Last year, Jordan Zimmermann was 10th in the National League among qualifying starters (1IP/team game) with a 3.18 ERA.  He will be 26 next year, entering the prime of his career, and finally off an innings limit.   In his first full season of pitching since Tommy John surgery he held opposing hitters to a .251/.294/.377 triple slash line (BA/OBP/SLG), all well-below NL hitting norms. 

If we rank his pitching  by OPS against average, Zimmermann was 14th in the National League, suggesting his ERA was well-deserved.  The three pitchers who ranked ahead of him were Shaun Marcum, Chris Carpenter, and Madison Bumgarner; the three directly behind were Ryan Vogelsong, Kyle Lohse, and Yovani Gallardo. 

What do all of these pitchers have in common?  They all had .500 records or better.  Yes, the Brewers and Cardinals boast very good offenses, but that doesn't explain the inclusion of two Giants' pitchers -- the Giants offense ranked last in the National League in runs scored, scoring 54 fewer runs than the Nats. 

The combined record of these pitchers last year was 81-54, good for a .600 winning percentage, probably what one would expect of pitchers just below the top-echelon. 

Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg, who will be 23 next season, is a year behind of Zimmerman in terms of his Tommy John recovery process.  He made a cameo appearance this year in the majors, and his numbers were filthy: (.398 OPS allowed, 12/1 K/BB ratio, 1.50 ERA), you get the picture.

However, because he pitched in only 24 innings, we are left with a small sample with which to judge his performance.  By combining his 2010 and 2011 statistics, we get his career totals:  92 innings pitched (about half of what you would expect a starter to manage in a season), a triple slash line against him of .211/.251/.297 (BA/OBP/SLG), and a K/BB ratio of just over 6/1.

 Putting these stats into perspective is dangerous, because it allows us to get carried away but this is all we have.  Assuming Strasburg pitched in 2011 long enough to qualify

for the ERA title, he would have had the lowest slugging average against him of any NL pitcher, as well as the lowest OPS against average.  

The five lowest OPS against averages in the NL this year were Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Cliff Lee. Their combined record: 83-39, which works out to a winning percentage of 68%.

Now, lets go out on a limb here and assume that both pitchers remain healthy for 2012.  Jordan Zimmermann, removed from his innings limit, goes on to make 34 starts next year and the Nats go 20-14 in games he pitches, winning slightly below 60% of his starts.

Strasburg, held back by an innings limit, is only allowed to throw 150 innings next season.  At six innings per game, that's 25 starts  (he has averaged just over 5 innings per start in his career so far because the Nationals have taken extra precautions with his arm).  If he were to win 68% of those games, that would be a record of 17-8. 

Combine those two records and you're looking at a 37-22 mark in games started by either Zimmermann or Strasburg. 

Finish 63-60 with you're 3, 4, and 5 starters and you've got 90 wins,  the same number of wins that the Cardinals needed to win the wild card this year.  I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'.  We need to seriously think about getting another pitcher this offseason.